Abstract

Sales of plug-in EVs (PEVs) have continued to increase in North America during recent years, with 2024 sales setting a new high. Despite this growth, demand was weaker than expected due to higher inflation and lingering volatility in the cost of raw materials. As a result, some automakers reevaluated their electrification plans. However, PEVs are expected to continue to be a growing piece of the North American vehicle market due to increases in production capacity spurred by investments from the Infrastructure and Jobs Act of 2021 and Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, and from an expected decrease in battery pack costs, which are likely to reduce the upfront cost of PEVs.

The policy environment that has helped PEV growth is likely to face significant change under the new U.S. administration, which has indicated plans to end policies that improve fuel efficiency as well as federal funding for PEV and EV supply equipment (EVSE) supply chains. Tariffs introduced on automobiles, auto parts, semiconductors, and steel, along with general tariffs on nearly all U.S. trading partners, are also expected to cause significant disruption to the North American auto industry.

This Guidehouse Insights report analyzes EV technology, innovations, incentives, policies, and vehicle availability to forecast PEV adoption in the U.S. and Canada on the national, state or province, and sub-state or sub-province levels. The forecasts are driven by battery pack and technology innovations, fuel prices, model availability, and zero emission vehicle (ZEV) mandates. They include passenger car and light truck segmentation in addition to powertrain breakouts by battery EVs (BEVs), plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs), and hybrid EVs (HEVs). Forecasts for EVSE deployments are segmented by technology (Level 1 [L1], Level 2 [L2], and DC fast chargers) and use cases, including fleet, public, multiuse dwellings (MUD), single-use dwellings (SUD), SUD-shared residences, and workplace.

What Questions Does This Report Answer?

• What is the annual PEV share of the light duty vehicle market expected to be from 2025-2034?
• What is the projected size of the North American PEV market through 2034?
• What is the projected size of EVSE deployment in North America through 2034?
• How will LDV sales perform by powertrain and vehicle class?
• How will EVSE be deployed by use case location and technology?
• Which states, provinces, and cities in North America are most likely to have the strongest penetration of PEVs and EVSE?
• How should automakers react to changes in PEV demand and sales?

Who Would Benefit from This Report?

• Automobile OEMs marketing managers
• Vehicle aftermarket and service management
• Tier One supplier marketing managers
• EV charging equipment marketing managers
• Electric utility management
• State, province, and city urban planners
• EV advocacy groups
• Investor community

Key Market Forecasts in This Report

• LD PEV Sales by Powertrain and PEV Market Share, North America: 2025-2034
• LDV Sales by Powertrain, U.S.: 2025-2034
• LDV Sales by Powertrain, Canada: 2025-2034
• LD PEV sales by State or Province, North America: 2025-2034
• LD PEV Sales by Class, U.S.: 2025-2034
• LD PEV Sales by Class, Canada: 2025-2034
• Charge Points by State or Province, North America: 2025-2034
• Charge Points by Technology, U.S.: 2025-2034
• Charge Points by Use Case, Canada: 2025-2034
• Public Charge Points by State or Province, North America: 2035-2034