Abstract

The global residential HVAC market is set for steady growth through 2034, propelled by demand for energy efficient, sustainable, and climate-adaptive solutions. Including equipment such as furnaces, boilers, heat pumps, and air conditioning units for single-family and multifamily homes, the market’s trajectory is shaped by regional trends. Asia-Pacific currently leads in revenue, driven by room A/C adoption and rising interest in heat pumps, while Europe is expected to overtake it by 2034 due to strong decarbonization policies and a rapid shift from boilers to electrified systems. North America remains robust for central A/C and heat pumps, and Latin America and the Middle East & Africa are forecast to grow more gradually, limited by infrastructure and affordability. Across all regions, government incentives, awareness of indoor air quality, and climate adaptation needs are accelerating expansion.

In this report, Guidehouse Research analyzes the market using a bottom-up modeling approach, segmenting by region, building type, construction type, and equipment. The report draws on interviews with industry leaders and secondary research, focusing on equipment revenue from 2025 to 2034. It highlights the impact of regulations, innovation, and consumer trends, while addressing barriers such as high upfront costs, supply chain volatility, and skilled labor shortages. The competitive landscape is mapped through profiles of major manufacturers, mergers and acquisitions, and pricing strategies.

Key recommendations include prioritizing innovation in heat pumps and energy efficient solutions to align with global decarbonization trends. Policymakers should support adoption through incentives and modernized codes, while homeowners can benefit from long-term savings by choosing high-efficiency systems. Notably, the global residential HVAC market is projected to grow from US$138.9 billion in 2025 to US$180.5 billion by 2034, a compound annual growth rate of 3.0%.

What Questions Does This Report Answer?

• What are the key market trends driving the growth of the global residential HVAC market?
• What are the main drivers and barriers influencing the adoption of advanced heat pumps?
• How do regional dynamics affect the residential HVAC market in North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, Latin American, and Middle East & Africa?
• What are the revenue forecasts for different residential HVAC equipment over the next decade?
• What strategic recommendations are provided for policy makers, equipment manufacturers, and end-users?

Who Would Benefit from This Report?

• Equipment manufacturers and suppliers
• Policymakers and regulators
• Consultants and analysts
• Investors and financial analysts
• Technology providers and innovators
• Single-family and multi-family end-users

Key Market Forecasts in This Report

• Residential HVAC Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2025–2034
• Residential HVAC Revenue by Equipment, North America: 2025–2034
• Residential HVAC Revenue by Equipment, Europe: 2025–2034
• Residential HVAC Revenue by Equipment, Asia Pacific: 2025–2034
• Residential HVAC Revenue by Equipment, Latin America: 2025–2034
• Residential HVAC Revenue by Equipment, Middle East & Africa: 2025–2034